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Methodology

How the Mock BCS Works

The Mock BCS recreates the formula college football used from 1998 to 2013 to pick its national title game, blending what the voters thought with what the computers calculated. Three parts, equal weight.

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AP Poll %

A team's AP points divided by the most it could get (every voter ranking it #1, worth 25 points each).

Replaces the Harris Interactive Poll (2005–2013)

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Coaches Poll %

The same calculation with the USA Today Coaches Poll ballots, just like the original formula.

Unchanged from the original formula

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Computer %

Four computers each give 25 points for #1 down to 1 for #25: the Colley Matrix, Bradley-Terry and Elo (from wins and losses) and an SRS (Simple Rating System, from scores). All four are calculated on this site from this season's games only, with no preseason ratings, like the real BCS computers. The best and worst are dropped, and the other two are added up out of 50.

Replaces Sagarin, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Anderson & Hester, Wolfe

Mock BCS Average = ( AP % + Coaches % + Computer % ) ÷ 3

Worked example

Loading this week's #1 team...

Notes

  • Max poll points = first-place votes cast × 25.
  • The College Football Playoff committee rankings appear next to the Mock BCS for comparison only. They are not part of the formula.
  • Each week's computers use only the games played before that week's polls came out, the same games the voters saw. Week 1 is the preseason, so it ranks on the two polls alone.
  • SRS rates each team by its average scoring margin, capped at 28 points and adjusted 2.5 points for home field, plus the average rating of the teams it played. It uses only games between FBS teams.
  • Teams tied at the bottom are ordered by average computer rank.
  • Colley Matrix, Bradley-Terry and Elo use only wins and losses, like the computers in the original formula, which weren't allowed to count margin of victory. Colley uses games between FBS teams.
  • Bradley-Terry finds the team strengths that best explain who beat whom, so each win is worth as much as the team you beat turns out to be. Every non-FBS opponent is pooled into one team, and each team gets one made-up win and loss against an average team so unbeaten teams still get a finite rating.
  • Elo starts every FBS team at 1,500 (non-FBS opponents count as 1,200). Each game moves both teams by how surprising the result was, with home field worth 55 points. The season is replayed 10 times so early wins count for what those opponents turned out to be.